Previously on Conference Realignplosion, I laid out why I think the A-10 fracturing is unlikely even in a worst case scenario thanks to money from TV, the NCAA tournament and a recent competitive advantage over the alternatives like Colonial and Horizon. Today, I'm going to analyze what the conference rankings using RPI would look like if realignment had already happened. First, I'll lay out the worst case scenario I looked at in the first Realignplosion. Then I'll look at what would happen if the Catholic League went no privates and what would happen if the C7 took Creighton and UMass stays in the A-10. Finally and just for fun, we'll look at what the college hoops world would look like if the nothing changed from the realignment scenarios we're already aware of.
I want to make a few notes before we get to the data and breakdowns. I did not assume any teams would join the A-10 in any scenario. At the moment, I'm just looking at what would be left over. All are RPI numbers are from realtimerpi.com's daily RPI for 12/20/12. I adjusted all conferences memberships according to moves that have already been announced and can be verified on Wikipedia. In the scenarios, I only made changes that would impact the Big East, Catholic League, A-10 and the Valley.
Worst Case Scenario
| 1 | Big 10 | 0.5885 |
| 2 | ACC | 0.5781 |
| 3 | Catholic | 0.5737 |
| 4 | PAC12 | 0.5728 |
| 5 | MWC | 0.5580 |
| 6 | Big 12 | 0.5518 |
| 7 | Big East | 0.5500 |
| 8 | SEC | 0.5422 |
| 9 | MVC | 0.5318 |
| 10 | A10 | 0.5295 |
| 11 | WCC | 0.5170 |
| 18 | CUSA | 0.4875 |
| 23 | CAA | 0.4675 |
Before I look into the remaining A-10 schools, I think it's worth noting that our league will be helped in no small part by Conference USA dropping like a rock in terms of basketball quality in all scenarios. CUSA is not likely to challenge for a top 10 spot for a long time.
To refresh your memory, my worst case scenario, which I outlined in the first post of the series, has 5 teams leaving the A-10 either for the Catholic League or four to the Catholic League and St Louis to the Valley with UMass departing for a football conference. For this scenario, I sent St Louis to the Catholic League. I also sent UMass to the football Big East. The remaining schools, Richmond, Lasalle, St Joe's, Duquesne, St Bonaventure, Rhode Island, George Washington, and Fordham, would actually be the 10th best conference in the NCAA and would be in a fine position to add almost any mid major they would like. Relative to other conferences, the league would be in same position it was in 6 years ago though it looks like a one or two bid league without a truly elite team now or program for the future. On the other hand, no one besides Fordham is hurting the league too badly. The A-10 certainly would not be where it once was, but it would remain on par with the top mid major conferences while have great deal of room for growth. Certainly, there would be no reason to fear a breakup unless something unforeseen happened.
No Public Schools in the Catholic League
| 1 | Big 10 | 0.5885 |
| 2 | ACC | 0.5781 |
| 3 | PAC12 | 0.5728 |
| 4 | Catholic | 0.5681 |
| 5 | MWC | 0.5580 |
| 6 | Big 12 | 0.5518 |
| 7 | Big East | 0.5500 |
| 8 | SEC | 0.5422 |
| 9 | A10 | 0.5379 |
| 10 | MVC | 0.5318 |
| 11 | WCC | 0.5170 |
| 18 | CUSA | 0.4875 |
| 23 | CAA | 0.4675 |
In the 2nd scenario, the A-10 still loses 6 teams, but VCU stays in the conference instead of Richmond. This allows us to keep a marque program and would put us in an even greater position of strength to take schools on. If we were to add schools like George Mason and Belmont, we would move past the SEC into 8th place in this scenario and would solidly become the second best basketball centered conference.
No Publics, UMass Stays Put and Creighton goes East
| 1 | Big 10 | 0.5885 |
| 2 | ACC | 0.5781 |
| 3 | Catholic | 0.5750 |
| 4 | PAC12 | 0.5728 |
| 5 | MWC | 0.5580 |
| 6 | Big 12 | 0.5518 |
| 7 | A10 | 0.5456 |
| 8 | Big East | 0.5441 |
| 9 | SEC | 0.5422 |
| 10 | MVC | 0.5206 |
| 11 | WCC | 0.5170 |
| 18 | CUSA | 0.4875 |
| 23 | CAA | 0.4675 |
In this scenario, Dayton stays as Creighton takes their spot in the West and UMass sticks around for the time being. While I think it's a matter of time before UMass jumps ship, I don't think a move is necessarily imminent as their football program is still in it's FBS infancy. For the time being the MAC is their best place to grow in my opinion. In this scenario, the A-10 could get even better if they decide to add schools but for now, it might be best to stay at ten.
Current RPI with Known Conference Moves Only
| 1 | Big 10 | 0.5885 |
| 2 | ACC | 0.5781 |
| 3 | PAC12 | 0.5728 |
| 4 | A10 | 0.5616 |
| 5 | MWC | 0.5580 |
| 6 | Big 12 | 0.5518 |
| 7 | Catholic | 0.5514 |
| 8 | Big East | 0.5441 |
| 9 | SEC | 0.5422 |
| 10 | MVC | 0.5318 |
| 11 | WCC | 0.5170 |
| 18 | CUSA | 0.4875 |
| 23 | CAA | 0.4675 |
This is where the irony begins to surface. Even more so than in football, the next changes in the A-10 will be more about brand than it will be about competition. Any team that decides to leave the A-10 will basically be deciding which conference gets to be the elite basketball only conference. If things stay as they are, it would be the A-10 on top and the Catholic downgrading its situation. If the A-10 schools make the jump, the Catholic league becomes the better league. While I do think the new conference would be more likely to remain at the top, the A-10 in it's current state would challenge the BCS programs annually and would only get stronger with time. Schools like Xavier, and Butler are in a no lose situation. They win if they change conference and they win if they stay with everyone else. Sadly, this is probably the least likely of all the scenarios to happen.
As I finish proofreading this entry, it will be an hour until the next age of the Mayan calender begins. However, I think the current RPI of a worst case scenario A-10 would signal that the end of days for the league are not coming with this wave of realignment. In fact, things won't be as terrifying as some people think and we should be left with a competitive conference in the shell of our brief former glory. True it will likely operate as a one or two bid league for sometime, but that number could easily climb to our usual three within a few seasons. The A-10 will be in a position to expand and programs left behind will get the opportunity to fill the void. Bottom line, I wouldn't count the A-10 out by any means and I wouldn't count us down for long either.
