By Steve DiMiceli
Last week, I gave my pessimistic and my optimistic projections for Duquesne's upcoming season and I concluded their win total would fall somewhere between 10-19 wins. Like any range the most likely scenario lies somewhere in the middle.
For a more in depth look at my method to make projections in this series, please check out my pessimistic take.
Power Forward/Center
I established in the my optimistic piece that no matter how you spin it, the Dukes are probably going to be about a game worse in the post due to the absence of BJ Moteiro. However, I also suggest that the overall lineup could improve if two big men prove they can eat minutes at the same time, allowing Quevyn Winters to play his more natural small forward position. I don't think that will happen for the bulk of the minutes, but I think situationally it can. I think Andre Marhold will give better quality minutes as a senior and I think Martins Abele will be able to eat clock and help neutralize bulkier opponents as he's done in the Pro-Am. This will allow Winters to play the 3 at times. Of course there is still the Derrick Martin wildcard who could potentially add a very nice boost. He's also the most likely of the returning bigs to be the kind of versatile player Jim Ferry likes.
Small Forward
I think Jerry Jones will get most of the playing time at small forward, but I don't think he'll play more than 25 minutes a game. Kadeem Pantophlet and Winters will split time between the 3 and 4 depending on who else is in the game to play the post. Because of the depth here and Winters taking some of the minutes, I think we could see a push in terms of productivity between this year's team and last year's. As a unit, the Dukes should get excellent three point production from the 3 and while I don't think they will score as much as Sean Johnson did, they should make up for that with defense and rebounding.
Shooting Guard
Sean Johnson moving back to his more natural 2 guard should be the strength of the team. It will be interesting to see how he responds to being the focus of the opposing team's defense and to being the man in general. I think at worst, he matches his production from last year which would amount to an improvement at shooting guard. With increased minutes that translates to more points. I expect Johnson to be in the conversation for 3rd team all conference. If he is that amounts to a 2 game improvement for the Dukes.
Point Guard
Point guard looks good for the future but I think Derrick Colter will take his lumps adjusting the speed of the college game. I think he will win a few games for us, but I think he will struggle in others. I see Marvin Binney as a stabilizing force off the bench, but he doesn't have the "take over the game" upside that Colter has. While I don't think Colter's ceiling is much lower than TJ McConnell's long term, I do think he'll be well off TJ's sophomore year production as a freshman. Binney will probably match the production of Mike Talley from day one, but they won't have the 3rd point guard for added depth. An injury will put this team in a difficult spot. Overall, I think the point guard position is two games worse, but has a lot of potential down the road.
Coaching
While the returning players will need to adapt to a new system, the system will not be that different than the old. It should be simplified in some ways but will certainly be more complex offensively. One thing is certain, there will be a system. Based on what I've read, Ferry does account for some level of mistakes like turnovers which should smooth out the transition since the expectation isn't flawlessness. I expect Ferry to keep control of the team late into the season and coach better at the end of games. Even though there will be some challenges with implementing a new offense, I think Ferry's bench presence amounts to a push this year with the potential to be a 2-3 win improvement over Ron Everhart moving forward.
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Comparing this year's team to last year's, I think we're looking at a drop off of only about a game putting them at 15 wins. Given the turmoil from March to May, I would have been over the moon with 15. I've assumed the schedule will be similar, but a lighter out of conference load could see the Dukes get 16. If the schedule is any harder I think 14 wins is most likely. I suspect that the team will finish somewhere in 120-140 range in RPI giving them an very good chance to play in the CBI.
Bottom line, this year might not be great, but I think the team is headed in the right direction. Once again we'll have young lineup, but 15 wins should just be the beginning. Long term, I'm very optimistic for a Jim Ferry led Duquesne, but they will take their lumps in this transition year. However, I don't think it will be too bad.
